“Fed Watch” is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. In each episode, we question mainstream and Bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.

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In this episode, CK and I cover our reactions to the FTX debacle, the latest consumer price index (CPI) numbers from the U.S. and the new central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot by the Federal Reserve and banks. We touch on the G20 meeting in Bali, but run out of time at the end and don’t cover it in depth.

CPI Numbers From The U.S.

We had to skip last week’s show due to scheduling conflicts, so we missed covering the CPI numbers. This week, I read out some of the important details of the data.

October’s headline CPI change was +0.4%, almost half of the Cleveland Fed’s CPI Nowcast projection of 0.76%, and far below the industry forecast of 0.6%. It really shocked the market and stocks rallied hard.

Bitcoin’s expected reaction would have matched that of stocks if it were not for the FTX collapse happening at the time — even though FTX didn’t hold any bitcoin anyway, as it turns out. This move in the bitcoin price was therefore a sympathetic move with the industry. The correlation between altcoins and bitcoins won out over bitcoin’s correlation with stocks. However, that is evidence that bitcoin is oversold from a fundamentals perspective.

Shelter was the…